Caught between East and West: Will Moldova achieve its EU and NATO dreams?
James Westmacott - 28 October 2024
Described as one of Europe’s most well-kept secrets, Moldova is best known for its ancient monasteries, picturesque landscapes, and for being home to the world’s largest underground wine cellar, Mileștii Mici. However, the small, landlocked European country has also found itself tied up in geopolitical struggles throughout its history, and only gained independence in 1991. Before this, Moldova, which is wedged between Romania and Ukraine, faced periods of fluctuation between Russian and Romanian rule, before becoming part of the Soviet Union in 1940.The collapse of the Soviet Union brought further turmoil, as the easternmost region of Moldova, the ethnically and linguistically Russian Transnistria, broke away and formed an (albeit unofficial) independent state, while the rest of Moldova enjoyed independence for the first time in its history.
Caught between the non-altruistic strategic desires of both Russia and the West, Moldova has since pursued the Western course, characterised by the targets of achieving both EU and NATO membership. Any visitor to the country will swiftly notice the prevalence of European Union flags imprinted with the year 2030, the target date set by the government for accession to the supranational bloc. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proved a major scare for Moldova, with many commentators fearing that Moldova would be next. Its proximity to the conflict and position outside of NATO hurried Maia Sandu’s government into making an application for EU membership in March 2022 (just a month after Russian troops marched into Ukraine), with official candidate status being granted in June of that year.
In the latest chapter of the political charade, Moldovans last week backed the incumbent government’s proposed constitutional changes permitting the EU course. Viewed as a referendum choice between Westernisation and remaining within Russia’s sphere of influence, the pro-EU camp claimed victory with 50.46% of the vote, whilst 49.54% rejected the proposed changes. In a result that makes the Brexit vote appear a clear majority, many now question the mandate of Moldova’s EU accession given half the country’s dismissal of it. The referendum was combined with Moldova’s quadrennial presidential elections, with Sandu facing a second-round run-off next month after failing to secure an outright victory against rival Alexandr Stoianoglo.
But even if the political choice has been made, there remain a number of obstacles to Moldova’s EU dream. Firstly, Moldova must sign up to democratic, judicial, and legal guarantees which, in the wake of shutting down a multitude of TV networks and websites, it does not appear to be meeting. The EU is also unlikely to permit Moldova’s membership until the Transnistrian situation is sorted out. Currently a pro-Russian territory governed by politicians linked to the Kremlin, the breakaway region also represents a frozen conflict, with the Transnistria War in 1992 not something EU leaders will be looking to repeat. Finally, Russia’s war in Ukraine has major potential consequences for Moldova. If Russia is able to control vast swathes of Ukraine right up to its south-western border, Moldova could be next. Transnistria, which has already formally requested Russian annexation, would be subsumed, leaving the remainder of Moldova entirely at the behest of a Russian incursion. Although these events are very unlikely at this stage, Moldova nonetheless represents a unique case of a nation trapped within geopolitical limbo.